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Atlanta Severe Weather | Risk for NW Georgia Upgraded | News

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Atlanta Severe Weather | Risk for NW Georgia Upgraded
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Atlanta Severe Weather | Risk for NW Georgia Upgraded

 

The midwest have been taking it on the chin last night, look at the storm reports map and you will see that 14 tornadoes have touched down in the last 24 hours!!

Short Term

Today will be about the same as yesterday with a lot of clouds around N Georgia, but with the southerly winds and breaks in the clouds we will make it up into the 70's. There is a chance of a scattered shower or two around the area but for the most part we will just stay gray and warm throughout the day.

Severe Threat Upgraded

The SPC has gone ahead and upgraded a lot of N Georgia to a moderate risk. Notice it is in the area we talked about yesterday for having the highest chance of seeing severe weather this evening / night. Lets go over each map I have below so you can have a better understanding of what the SPC is talking about.

#1 This is the tornado risk map and the percentages mean a % chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of any given point on the map. Notice the 15% is in central TN later tonight, that could translate into Walker / Dade / Catoosa later tonight. I still think the main threat tonight is in TN.

#2 This is the wind threat map, notice how large this area in the central TN area? As a matter of face, notice that the 45% area is the exact same area as the moderate risk area? The SPC is thinking this will be a big wind event for TN and I agree. With the type of wind producers expected tonight there could be some brief spin ups on the northern sides of what are called bow echoes. These are small very short lived tornadoes that are caused by large differences in the wind field over very small areas. This, in my opinion, is the type of tornado that affected Rome last week. SO I have a feeling we are going to see a lot of wind in TN and parts of N Georgia later tonight.

#3 This is the hail map and notice that it is a smaller percentage than wind.... This means that the cold air aloft won't be fully in place later tonight, also that the updrafts in these storms will not be like the major updrafts we see in the big daddy storms in major outbreaks. We will still see hail, not the giant hail we see in the heart of tornado alley.

What's going to happen?

This system will do what I had talked about in the previous blogs and that is rocket east today through TN and let a cold front sag into the NW section of the state. I think that the general consensus from me and Chesley is that the main threat for severe weather will stay in the NW section of the state with wind the primary threat. I think that there is a chance of a brief tornado up there as well along one of these major wind producing storms. Down below you can see some of the computer models moving that upper system very quickly towards the east coast. This will take a bulk of the upper energy out of the system later tonight so that will also help to minimize the threat for N Georgia to have major severe weather later tonight. You can see that at 1am (image #5) the cold front is sagging into N Georgia, this is when we could see the severe weather starting to weaken. Until that point there will be plenty of instability around for severe storms to continue to the NW sevtions of the state.

Timeline and My Thoughts

I think the timing for the chances of severe weather will start after around 5-7pm in the NW sections of the state and last until around 1am when at that point in time they should begin to weaken. On a scale form 1-10 I have raised this up for around a 4.


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